Forecast of Chinese feed grain demand based on system dynamics model

With the rapidly increasing the population, growing urbanization level and rising income of urban and rural residents, the food consumption structure has undergone tremendous changes in China, which further impacted on China´s future food consumption demand profoundly. Based on system dynamics (SD) method, a predicting model, named FSD, for China´s food consumption demand is established in this paper. FSD not only effectively solves the problems that traditional model are commonly encountered, such as lack of data and the difficulty to quantify data, but also improves the prediction accuracy of the overall system. Based on the predicting results, related policy options for Governments are proposed to ensure the safety of future food consumption in China.