Simulation of Urbanization Development Using Cellular Automata Model to Inform Urban Planning Policy in Zhangjiagang Region, China

As the world is becoming increasingly urbanized, there are growing concerns on the urbanization. In this study, a common Cellular Automata (CA) model incorporating macroscaled contribution factors and an innovative acquisition method of the initial state was performed in Zhangjiagang Region to simulate the local urbanization development. Using Land Use Urbanization Level (LUUL) layer and recursive threshold procedure to extract the initial state, the model was operated by the weight of summing the neighborhood effects and 4 factors in GIS. 96.90% of the High Degree in the simulated result was located in the actual urban and road area. The PD of the simulated result is 0.64 per 100 ha, higher than the PD of the actual urban area. And the LPI, AREA MN and CONTAG of the simulated result were 74.25%, 156.12 ha and 20.01 respectively, lower than that of the actual urban area. Results indicated that: 1) the integrated approach can rapidly and accurately simulate urbanization; 2) the CA-based simulated result of 2006 is more reasonable and more in accord with the Theory of Urban Convergence than the actual urban area of 2006. It demonstrated that the simulated result could provide valuable decision-support information to the local government for the urban planning policy.