Chronological Probability Model of Photovoltaic Generation

Author

Zhouyang Ren ; Wei Yan ; Xia Zhao ; Wenyuan Li ; Juan Yu

Author_Institution

State Key Lab. of Power Transm. Equip. & Syst. Security & New Technol., Chongqing Univ., Chongqing, China

Volume

29

Issue

3

fYear

2014

fDate

May-14

Firstpage

1077

Lastpage

1088

Abstract

This paper proposes a chronological probability model of photovoltaic (PV) generation on the basis of conditional probability and nonparametric kernel density estimation. In addition to randomness of PV power, the correlation of PV powers between adjacent time points and the uncertainty of start and end moments of PV output can be represented. The proposed model can be employed to produce random PV power time series curve using a stochastic sampling method. The power data of three PV generators in different regions with distinct weather conditions and 34-node distribution network are used to demonstrate the correctness, effectiveness, and adaptability of the presented model.

Keywords

distribution networks; photovoltaic power systems; probability; sampling methods; stochastic processes; time series; 34-node distribution network; PV output end moment uncertainty; PV output start moment uncertainty; PV power correlation; PV power randomness; adjacent time points; chronological probability model; conditional probability; distinct weather conditions; nonparametric kernel density estimation; photovoltaic generation; random PV power time series curve; stochastic sampling method; Bandwidth; Correlation; Data models; Estimation; Generators; Kernel; Time series analysis; Chronology; conditional probability; kernel density estimation; photovoltaic (PV) generation;

fLanguage

English

Journal_Title

Power Systems, IEEE Transactions on

Publisher

ieee

ISSN

0885-8950

Type

jour

DOI

10.1109/TPWRS.2013.2293173

Filename

6681957