Empirical Analysis on the Futures Price Bubble -Take the Wheat Market in China as a Sample

In this paper, the author uses the spot-futures parity theory to calculate the real value of wheat futures . Based on the present research concerning the price bubble problem in stock market, both the extraordinary variable variance analysis and the three portions test can be used on this kind of problem in wheat futures market. After improving the to analytical methods, the author carries out an empirical analysis on a sample of historical data. The results prove that China´s wheat futures market price bubble does not exist in the long term, but in the short term, it exists and the degree of wheat futures market price bubble has been decreasing significantly. Finally, this paper divides the different range of different kinds of price bubble according to the price bubble development stages.