Supply risk analysis in electricity markets from the perspective of a large customer

It is imperative for large customers in countries that have recently restructured (or are currently restructuring) their energy sectors to carefully analyze - from a strategic point of view - the options available for securing their energy requirements. What makes the process challenging is the presence of new and significant uncertainties, such as those related to the forward energy prices in wholesale markets. This paper presents the results of applying a decision analysis technique which takes explicit account of uncertainties to strategically evaluate the supply options available to Empresas Polar (the "Company"), a large industrial customer in Venezuela. The paper will help electric utilities and energy traders better understand the most important needs of large customers, in order to optimize the design of their marketing strategies to these important loads.