Integrated resource planning in developing countries - a novel practical approach

Integrated resource planning ("IRP") is an effective approach to energy utility planning for future energy requirements. The goal of IRP is the identification of resources and/or the mix of resources for meeting near and long term consumer energy needs in an efficient and reliable manner at the lowest reasonable cost. These plans take into account the cost, effectiveness, and benefits of all appropriate, available, and feasible power generation and customer options. This work presents an IRP developed for an African country, detailing a projection of supply- and demand-side capacity requirements to meet national objectives during the 2004-2020 periods. It also presents the risk assessment methodology employed; describing its implementation in terms of a computer model developed specifically for this particular case, and discusses the main results from the application of this model. Finally, we recommend several hedging strategies designed to mitigate the risk exposure.