Title :
Construction of the Early-warning Systems with Debt Risk Indexes for the Local Government and Demonstration Analysis: Take State of Yunnan Province for Example
Author :
Cairen, Nie ; Guangbing, Zhang
Author_Institution :
Sch. of Econ. & Manage., Yunnan Normal Univ., Kunming, China
Abstract :
In this paper, on the basis of previous studies derived the local government debt risk assessment model, established risk prediction methods by using BP artificial neural network model, and analyzed this method through an example. So provide a set of scientific method to evaluate the local government debt risk and predict the short-term risk. This is useful for adoption effective means to control of the local government debt risk.
Keywords :
alarm systems; backpropagation; local government; neural nets; public finance; risk analysis; BP artificial neural network; debt risk index; early warning system; local government debt; risk assessment model; risk prediction method; BP neural network; Local government debt; analytic hierarchy; risk;
Conference_Titel :
Information Management, Innovation Management and Industrial Engineering (ICIII), 2010 International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Kunming
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-8829-2
DOI :
10.1109/ICIII.2010.510