The Forecasting of China Natural Gas Consumption Based on Genetic Algorithm

Author

Rui, Chen ; Jian, Wang ; Li, Wang ; Ningjie, Yu ; Pengyan, Zhang

Author_Institution

Inst. of Policy & Manage.(IPM), Chinese Acad. of Sci.(CAS), China

fYear

2009

fDate

25-27 Aug. 2009

Firstpage

1436

Lastpage

1439

Abstract

Since the natural gas is clean, environmentally friendly and highly effective and its strategic status is increasingly prominent, it is in urgent demand to precisely predict natural gas consumption.In our country, a large number of models to predict natural gas consumption have emerged, but all with unavoidable limitations as any single model. So, a model which can integrate merits of each single model is favored by most scholars. This article puts forward a method, based on genetic algorithms, to determine the weight, which avoids the original limit of the least square method and meets the requirements of model projections through different directions.

Keywords

energy consumption; forecasting theory; genetic algorithms; least squares approximations; natural gas technology; regression analysis; China natural gas consumption forecasting; genetic algorithm; least square method; model projections; natural gas consumption prediction; Artificial neural networks; Conference management; Demand forecasting; Environmental management; Genetic algorithms; Least squares methods; Natural gas; Predictive models; Research and development management; Time series analysis;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

INC, IMS and IDC, 2009. NCM '09. Fifth International Joint Conference on

Conference_Location

Seoul

Print_ISBN

978-1-4244-5209-5

Electronic_ISBN

978-0-7695-3769-6

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/NCM.2009.389

Filename

5331430