Case Study of Public Emergency Diffusion Based on SD Simulation Xintan Landslide in Three Gorges Dam Region

Through field investigation, this paper establishes systematic dynamics model based on Xintan landslides in Three Gorges Dam Region and applies SD model to emulate the simulation of their diffusion. The results indicate that the landslide leads to 10 categories of secondary events such as ship sinking, dam flood discharge, personnel deaths etc., which will occur at different moments and with divergent evolutionary curves. Finally this paper introduces (1) building emergency synergistic handling system of multi-subjects, (2)confirming scientific emergency handling and responsive measures, and (3) establishing dynamic flexible scheme of handling strategies including dynamic flexible scheme.