Title :
An Adaptive-Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System for Long-Term Electric Consumption Forecasting (2008-2015): A Case Study of the Group of Seven (G7) Industrialized Nations: U.S.A., Canada, Germany, United Kingdom, Japan, France and Italy
Author :
Nadimi, Vahid ; Azadeh, Ali ; Pazhoheshfar, Peiman ; Saberi, Morteza
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Electr. Eng., Islamic Azad Univ. of Tafresh, Tafresh, Iran
Abstract :
This paper presents an adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for long-term natural Electric consumption prediction. Six models are proposed to forecast annual Electric demand. 104 ANFIS have been constructed and tested in order to finding best ANFIS for Electric consumption. The proposed models consist of input variables such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Population (POP). All of trained ANFIS are compared with respect to mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). To meet the best performance of the intelligent based approaches, data are pre-processed (scaled) and finally outputs are post-processed (returned to its original scale). To show the applicability and superiority of the ANFIS, actual electric consumption are considered in industrialized nations including U.S.A, Canada, Germany, United Kingdom, Japan, France and Italy from 1980 to 2007. With aid of autoregressive model, GDP and population project by 2015 and then with yield value and best ANFIS model, Electric consumption predict by 2015.
Keywords :
autoregressive processes; demand forecasting; economic indicators; fuzzy set theory; inference mechanisms; load forecasting; neural nets; power consumption; power engineering computing; power system economics; socio-economic effects; ANFIS; Canada; France; GDP; Germany; Italy; Japan; MAPE; POP; USA; United Kingdom; adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system; annual electric demand forecast; autoregressive model; gross domestic product; industrialized nations; long-term electric consumption forecasting; mean absolute percentage error; natural electric consumption prediction; population; Adaptive Network Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS); Electric Demand; Long-Term prediction;
Conference_Titel :
Computer Modeling and Simulation (EMS), 2010 Fourth UKSim European Symposium on
Conference_Location :
Pisa
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-9313-5
Electronic_ISBN :
978-0-7695-4308-6
DOI :
10.1109/EMS.2010.56