DocumentCode
2423980
Title
Forecasting: confronting the hazards
Author
Linstone, Harold A.
Author_Institution
Portland State Univ., OR, USA
fYear
1997
fDate
27-31 Jul 1997
Firstpage
866
Lastpage
869
Abstract
Since the 1960s, when technological forecasting tools gained recognition, we have learned some valuable lessons in dealing with complex sociotechnical systems. The paper discusses three key sources of failure in forecasting (short-term focus, assumption drag, over simplification) and impact assessment of technology and suggests steps to overcome them
Keywords
information technology; technological forecasting; assumption drag; complex sociotechnical systems; forecasting failure; information technology; over simplification; short-term focus; system complexity; technological forecasting tools; technology assessment; Economic forecasting; Extrapolation; Hazards; Logistics; Military aircraft; Power system modeling; Propellers; Sociotechnical systems; Space technology; Technology forecasting;
fLanguage
English
Publisher
ieee
Conference_Titel
Innovation in Technology Management - The Key to Global Leadership. PICMET '97: Portland International Conference on Management and Technology
Conference_Location
Portland, OR
Print_ISBN
0-7803-3574-0
Type
conf
DOI
10.1109/PICMET.1997.653672
Filename
653672
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