The bubble expansion rate of each period of China´s fictitious economy development

Over-development of fictitious economy may produce bubble capital and bubble burst can induce financial crisis. The Granger cause of the representative variable of real economy to the variables of fictitious economy in China is tested and the bubble expansion rate of each period of China´s fictitious economy is calculated by the quarterly data from the second quarter of 1998 to the forth quarter of 2009. The results show that there is either unilateral or bidirectional Granger cause among the variables; China´s fictitious economy has a low bubble expansion rate from 2008 to 2009; and the expansion rate of the financial market and the futures market increased quickly since 2008. The national sectors of China should take proper measures to promote healthy development of the fictitious economy and improve balanced development of the fictitious economy and real economy.