Scalable Security Models for Assessing Effectiveness of Moving Target Defenses

Moving Target Defense (MTD) changes the attack surface of a system that confuses intruders to thwart attacks. Various MTD techniques are developed to enhance the security of a networked system, but the effectiveness of these techniques is not well assessed. Security models (e.g., Attack Graphs (AGs)) provide formal methods of assessing security, but modeling the MTD techniques in security models has not been studied. In this paper, we incorporate the MTD techniques in security modeling and analysis using a scalable security model, namely Hierarchical Attack Representation Models (HARMs), to assess the effectiveness of the MTD techniques. In addition, we use importance measures (IMs) for scalable security analysis and deploying the MTD techniques in an effective manner. The performance comparison between the HARM and the AG is given. Also, we compare the performance of using the IMs and the exhaustive search method in simulations.