Behavioral model using Conjectural Variation in power markets considering the effect of contracts

Introduction of competition in the generation sector has resulted in an interest for modeling the behavior of competitors for all strategic decisions. The behavioral model using conjectural variation (CV) will play a key role in the prediction of behavior of all constituents of power market. The conjecture of a firm is defined as its belief or expectation about how its opponents will react to a change in its output. Since there is an absence of any confidential information, the CV based model has to be based on past data. In this paper, the following applications are reported. (a) An optimal bidding strategy, based on CV, to obtain the coefficients of affine supply function. For this, the elasticity of demand is also considered. The method, as applied to a practical system, is illustrated. (b) The effect of contracts on a pool based spot market. In this analysis, we study the effect of contracts on bids of generating companies, and the market power exercised by them. Simulation results for different sample systems are presented, which substantiate the analytic conclusions.