Numeric lightning prediction based on convective indexes at Yangkou Harbor

Author

Zhou Junchi ; Feng Minxue ; Cheng Lin ; Gao Xiaojing ; Zeng Mingjian ; Ge Lili

Author_Institution

Jiangsu Lightning Protection Center, Nanjing, China

fYear

2012

fDate

29-31 May 2012

Firstpage

1418

Lastpage

1420

Abstract

This paper calculated the 22 kinds of convective indexes and carried out correlative and statistics analysis based on the 1645 samples at Yangkou Harbor from 2001 to 2009. Such convective indexes as pw, ji, si, tt, ssi, tcl_t, dt_58, whose double-sequence correlation coefficients with lightning events range from 0.321 to 0.544, are chosen as lightning predictors, which could effectively distinguish and indicate thunderstorms. Numeric prediction equations are established by means of bio-level logistic regression and mathematical expectation threshold to issue lightning alarms are acquired.

Keywords

convection; lightning; oceanographic regions; regression analysis; thunderstorms; AD 2001 to 2009; China; Yangkou Harbor; biolevel logistic regression; convective indexes; correlative analysis; double-sequence correlation coefficients; lightning prediction based method; mathematical expectation threshold; numeric prediction equations; statistics analysis; thunderstorms; Correlation; Equations; Indexes; Lightning; Logistics; Mathematical model; Bio-level logistic regression; Convective indexes; Double-sequence correlative coefficients; Numeric prediction equations;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Fuzzy Systems and Knowledge Discovery (FSKD), 2012 9th International Conference on

Conference_Location

Sichuan

Print_ISBN

978-1-4673-0025-4

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/FSKD.2012.6234094

Filename

6234094