Title :
Pooling expert opinions using Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence
Author :
Mellouli, Khaled ; Elouedi, Zied
Author_Institution :
LAROID, Inst. Superieur de Gestion de Tunis, Tunisia
Abstract :
We propose a method based on Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence, to pool expert judgements about the hypotheses of the studied field and to get an assessment and even a ranking of the different scenarios. We start by presenting scenarios, then we describe an aggregation method of expertise based on probabilities and its limitations. Finally, we propose our method for pooling expert opinions using belief functions
Keywords :
aggregation; decision theory; inference mechanisms; probability; strategic planning; Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence; aggregation method; belief functions; expert opinions; expertise; probabilities; ranking; scenarios; Airplanes; Airports; Delay; Event detection; Fuzzy sets; Hydrogen; Strategic planning; Uncertainty;
Conference_Titel :
Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, 1997. Computational Cybernetics and Simulation., 1997 IEEE International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Orlando, FL
Print_ISBN :
0-7803-4053-1
DOI :
10.1109/ICSMC.1997.638327
