Enrollment forecasting for an upper division general education component

An administration-engineering partnership was established to ensure the effective operation of an upper division, general education theme requirement at Grand Valley State University (GVSU). The percent of theme course seats occupied was increasing each semester and approaching 100%. Student complaints about course unavailability and other anecdotal evidence supported the quantitative evidence. A regression analysis, based on historical enrollment data, provided an accurate forecast of the number of students enrolled by semester and level, freshman through senior. A second regression analysis yielded equations for the number of theme courses taken by students at each level in each semester. The coefficient of determination (R²) was 94.5% or above for each semester for juniors and seniors who are the vast majority of students in theme courses. Since resources for expanding theme courses offerings by the forecasted 23% were not available, existing courses were reviewed for their applicability to each theme and numerous of these were added for the 2005-2006 academic year. Academic year 2006-2007 theme courses enrollment is 93% of capacity. The number of student complaints concerning theme course unavailability is perceived to have dropped.