Transmission Expansion under Risk using Stochastic Programming

Author

Alvarez, Juan ; Ponnambalam, Kumaraswamy ; Quintana, Victor H.

Author_Institution

Dept. of Electr. & Comput. Eng., Waterloo Univ., Ont.

fYear

2006

fDate

11-15 June 2006

Firstpage

1

Lastpage

7

Abstract

In this work, the problem of transmission expansion under risk from demand uncertainty and capacity of the lines is addressed. A deterministic model is expanded into a two-stage stochastic model with fixed recourse by means of considering the various foreseeable levels of demand as random. After this model is analyzed, a way of quantifying risk using the mean-variance Markowitz approach is proposed. The last model presented is such that randomness in the transmission capacity factor for each line is considered using a probabilistic constraint. The concepts of expected value of perfect information (EVPI) and the value of the stochastic solution (VSS) are also studied

Keywords

power transmission lines; power transmission planning; probability; risk analysis; stochastic programming; demand uncertainty; mean-variance Markowitz approach; probabilistic constraint; risk analysis; stochastic programming; transmission expansion planning; transmission line capacity; Costs; Design engineering; Investments; Load flow; Power engineering and energy; Power system modeling; Power system planning; Power system reliability; Power systems; Stochastic processes;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, 2006. PMAPS 2006. International Conference on

Conference_Location

Stockholm

Print_ISBN

978-91-7178-585-5

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/PMAPS.2006.360194

Filename

4202206