Probabilistic methods used in asset management for MV electrical equipment at EDF

In the opening of the market, asset management for electrical equipment is a great stake for the CDF Group. This paper presents some aspects of the use of probabilistic methods to improve the asset management of electrical equipment. Probabilistic methods are used to answer to questions that regards aging and asset management of electrical equipment. The example in this paper concerns investment strategy for the quality supply for MV feeders with the use of stochastic model. Also renewal refurbishing strategies (based on statistical analysis of maintenance database) for old MV cables of EDF distribution (MV network in France) will be described. Asset managers would have to fulfil theirs commitments regarding the number of power cuts and to set up their policies for burying overhead line and replacing old cables. So new strategies of investments should be developed, optimising the compromise between risks of over stepping quality thresholds and investment strategies. The risk management approach should be based on a quality model of the network which is presented in this paper. Also research or new probabilistic methods are planned to be use in the future at EDF R&D in asset management studies, and will be discussed such as Monte Carlo simulation to compute average time unavailability of MV network