Adaptive Combination of Forecast With Application to Wind Energy Forecast

Author

Sánchez, Ismael

Author_Institution

Dept. of Stat., Univ. Carlos III of Madrid

fYear

2006

fDate

11-15 June 2006

Firstpage

1

Lastpage

6

Abstract

This article proposes an adaptive combination of forecasts procedure called AEC that tends to be similar to always using the best individual predictor in a time varying environment. Also, a two steps combination procedure is proposed to allow the use of alternative combinations procedures. The idea is, in a first step, to use different combination procedures, with the AEC among them. In the second step, the AEC is used to combine the combinations of the first step and produce the final combination. The proposed procedures are applied to a wind farm where 9 alternative forecasts were available, showing the advantage of the proposals

Keywords

weather forecasting; wind power; wind power plants; AEC; adaptive forgetting factor; recursive least squares; wind energy forecast; wind farm; Economic forecasting; Load forecasting; Predictive models; Production; Proposals; Weather forecasting; Wind energy; Wind farms; Wind forecasting; Yttrium; Adaptive forgetting factors; Dynamic models; Recursive least squares; Wind energy forecasting;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, 2006. PMAPS 2006. International Conference on

Conference_Location

Stockholm

Print_ISBN

978-91-7178-585-5

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/PMAPS.2006.360292

Filename

4202304