Evaluation on the Industrialization Potential of Emerging Technologies Based on Principal Component and Cluster Analysis

Emerging technology has a high degree of uncertainty and complexity, and these characteristics render the technology management and evaluation more difficult. This paper utilizes the concept of technology foresight to establish the index system of evaluating the industrialization potential of emerging technology, which is composed of 5 first-grade indexes and 25 second-grade indexes. Then with the help of SPSS tools, we use the principal component and cluster analysis model (PCA-CA) to do the objective and subjective evaluation on the 16 information and communication technologies (ICT) of the Olympic science and technology (S&T) projects. First, this method has reflected the non-linear relationship between the evaluation results and the index system, and reduced the participation and workload of the experts, so it reduces the subjectivity of the evaluation and has greatly enhanced the efficiency and scientific of emerging technology evaluation. Second, the evaluation results have a certain referential value, which can help business and management departments make policy decisions.