Propagation of parameter uncertainty based on evidence theory

Uncertainty quantification is an important component in robust design, because it is essential to obtain the robust solution. The classical robust design method pays more attention to aleatory uncertainty of parameters while disregarding epistemic uncertainty, which is now viewed as an inherent property of the system and has gained a lot of attention in recent years. In this paper, the features of parameter uncertainty are reviewed and an integrated framework, which can handle the aleatory and epistemic uncertainty of parameters simultaneously using evidence theory, is proposed. Finally, an example is used to illustrate the procedures of our approach.