The impact of forecasting errors and remedial actions on operational security and efficiency in classical and probabilistic market coupling

Managing uncertainties becomes a major challenge in power systems with a high penetration of volatile generation and load. On the contrary, the controllability of the transmission system increases due to the evolution of a smart grid and more flexible technologies. In this paper a methodology for analyzing the impact of uncertainties and operational flexibility in the context of different market coupling (MC) approaches is outlined. In particular, probability density functions of forecasting errors of renewable energy sources (RES) are evaluated and applied in a case study modeling MC in the CWE region. Further, a modeling approach for probabilistic constrained flow-based MC is presented as a more conservative alternative to classical flow-based MC. The simulation results underline that there is a trade-off between being conservative by constraining the dispatch in a tighter security-of-supply domain on the one hand and the economic costs and necessary curtailment of RES on the other hand. A key aspect being addressed is the consideration of remedial actions in the algorithms. Whereas accounting for uncertainties tightens the security-of-supply domain, the market results become less constrained when accounting for the ability to react to uncertainties and to (N-l)-cases.