Title :
A Proposal of NHPP-Based Method for Predicting Code Change in Open Source Development
Author_Institution :
Grad. Sch. of Sci. & Eng., Ehime Univ., Matsuyama, Japan
Abstract :
This paper proposes a novel method for predicting the amount of source code changes (changed lines of code: changed-LOC) in the open source development (OSD). While the software evolution can be observed through the public code repository in OSD, it is not easy to understand and predict the state of the whole development because of the huge amount of less-organized information.The method proposed in the paper predicts the code changes by using only data freely available from the code repository the code-change time stamp and the changed-LOC.The method consists of two steps: 1) to predict the number of occurrences of code changes by using a non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP)-based model, and 2) to predict the amount of code changes by using the outcome of the step-1 and the previously changed-LOC.The empirical work shows that the proposed method has an ability to predict the changed-LOC in the next 12 months with less than 10% error.
Keywords :
public domain software; software development management; software maintenance; NHPP-based method; changed-LOC; code-change time stamp; nonhomogeneous Poisson process-based model; open source development; public code repository; software evolution; source code change prediction; Convergence; Data models; Fault detection; Predictive models; Software; Testing; code change; non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP); open source development; prediction; software evolution;
Conference_Titel :
Software Measurement, 2011 Joint Conference of the 21st Int'l Workshop on and 6th Int'l Conference on Software Process and Product Measurement (IWSM-MENSURA)
Conference_Location :
Nara
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4577-1930-1
DOI :
10.1109/IWSM-MENSURA.2011.16