Title :
A new method of building grey forecasting model
Author :
Zeng, Xiangyan ; Xiao, Xinping
Author_Institution :
Coll. of Math. & Comput. Sci., Guilin Univ. of Electron. Technol., Guilin, China
Abstract :
Based on the modeling mechanism, the background value of accumulating method GM(1,1) model is reestablished, and its forecasting formula changed from white respond to connotation type. The theoretical analysis indicates that the improved modeling method extends the significative region of the model. And, results of the followed simulated test and the applied examples show that the new modeling method is suitable for either low-growth series or high-growth series, and has a very high precision for both short-term and long-term prediction. It extends the applicable range of GM(1,1).
Keywords :
forecasting theory; grey systems; accumulating method; grey forecasting model; high-growth series; long-term prediction; low-growth series; short-term prediction; white respond; Differential equations; Educational institutions; Least squares approximation; Least squares methods; Mathematics; Parameter estimation; Predictive models; Stability; Technology forecasting; Testing; Accumulating method; Background value; Connotation type; GM(1,1) model; White respond;
Conference_Titel :
Control and Decision Conference, 2009. CCDC '09. Chinese
Conference_Location :
Guilin
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-2722-2
Electronic_ISBN :
978-1-4244-2723-9
DOI :
10.1109/CCDC.2009.5191863
