Title :
Combination prediction model and dynamic analysis of arable land pressure in Shandong
Author :
Changyou Wu ; Deguang Yang
Author_Institution :
Coll. of Agric., Northeast Agric. Univ., Harbin, China
Abstract :
Based on the model of arable land pressure, this paper calculated the series of cultivated land pressure in Shandong province from 1990 to 2005. The trend of arable land pressure was analyzed by using exponential regression model, polynomial regression model and GM(1,1) model. The combination forecasting model of cultivated land pressure in Shandong was established by means of Particle Swarm Optimization(PSO). The results show that: (1)it is feasible to apply the PSO to solve weight of combination forecasting model. (2) the arable land area is decreasing and the land area per capita decreased from 1990 to 2008, so cultivated land pressure is increasing. The pressure index will be up to 1.8438, 1.9081, 1.9745, 2.0433, 2.1145 and 2.1881 from 2010 to 2015 year, so it is difficulty to keep the arable land resource security. Some measures were proposed for easing arable land pressure.
Keywords :
agriculture; forecasting theory; particle swarm optimisation; polynomials; regression analysis; Shandong province; arable land pressure; arable land resource security; combination forecasting model; combination prediction model; cultivated land pressure; dynamic analysis; exponential regression model; land area per capital; particle swarm optimization; polynomial regression model; pressure index; Analytical models; Biological system modeling; Data models; Forecasting; Indexes; Predictive models; Production; arable land pressure; forecasting model; particle swarm optimization;
Conference_Titel :
Mechanic Automation and Control Engineering (MACE), 2011 Second International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Hohhot
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-9436-1
DOI :
10.1109/MACE.2011.5987372
