Uncertainties in the development of unconventional gas production in Europe

As increasing import dependency raises doubts about the future security of gas supply in Europe, indigenous production especially from unconventional resources emerges as a promising solution for this problem. However, the development of unconventional gas production in Europe is challenged by several uncertainties related to the technology, reserves, societal and political issues. For a better analysis of the development of unconventional gas, and for better decision support, these uncertainties should be clearly identified. This paper systematically identifies and categorizes the uncertainties challenging the European unconventional gas development, and highlights the causal relations between the uncertainties in order to enhance their understanding. The impacts of the uncertainties discussed in this study on the development can be investigated in detail in future scenario analysis or modeling studies.