Driver Behavior Failure Probability Prediction Based on CREAM

As the major factor to driving safety, human error is induced both by inner factors and external environment factors. But until now, the systematical method for predicting driver´s behavior failure has not been put forward yet. Therefore, based on the contextual control model used in CREAM, the effects of the driving environment to the driver´s behavior are emphasized, and the characters in driving process, as well as the common performance conditions in driving environment are analyzed. The modified coefficient of the common performance conditions on the driver´s behavior failure is put forward. At the specific driving situation, the probable failure model of the driving operation is analyzed, and the failure probability of the driver´s behavior is predicted. The example shows that this method can be used simply, the prediction result can reflect the fact basically, and it can be used as reference for further research on driver reliability.