The Prediction on Spatial Development of Small Towns Based on GIS

More studies of the small towns at home and abroad were mainly focused on the development types, the development economic model and so on, all of these were qualitative. This paper expatiated the condition of the small town development in our country and the significance of the small town in development, then we introduced the basic theories that land spatial development of small town and familiar urban spatial pattern in small towns. Here with this foundation we use GIS technique to set up the mold method which will apply in a space development research of the small town. In the paper we put forward the way of combining both theory and physically, which is that the combination of GIS technology and the theories foundation of small town spatial development. With this method of both quality and quantity we studied the development of small town. Next we are detailed to introduce the quantization method of the spatial index, threshold index and the mathematics method in research. Finally, as the reasonable layout of the use of the small town´s land, we set up a model of small town development in different stage based on the study of some small towns in QiongHai in province HaiNan. To predict the largest scope of the small towns, we use the grey system model. The experiment showed that this model can image a trend for imitating small town developing in different stage and can make the estimate for the programming of the stage in different development in small towns. At the same time it is able to program the development stage of small town and make sure whether the planning is reasonable.