DocumentCode :
2807887
Title :
A study on global solar radiation forecasting models using meteorological data and their application to wide area forecast
Author :
Nomiyama, F. ; Asai, J. ; Murakami, Toshiyuki ; Takano, Hirotaka ; Murata, Junichi
Author_Institution :
Res. Inst., Kyushu Electr. Power Co. Inc., Fukuoka, Japan
fYear :
2012
fDate :
Oct. 30 2012-Nov. 2 2012
Firstpage :
1
Lastpage :
6
Abstract :
Two models are proposed for forecasting global solar radiation. The forecasted values are used to predict the output power of photovoltaic systems installed in power systems and control the output of other generators to meet the electricity demand. One of the models is used for at least one-day-ahead demand and supply planning. The other model is used for three-hour-ahead demand and supply operation. The models are based on weather information and use descriptive statistics and binary trees respectively. The focus is on estimation of the anticipated variations in the forecasts and dealing with the nonlinearity of the relationship between the global solar radiation and the input variables. In addition, the smoothing effect of the errors is investigated and utilized when they are applied to wide area forecasting. The results show that they are promising in keeping the balance between demand and supply in power systems with photovoltaic systems installed.
Keywords :
demand forecasting; electric generators; photovoltaic power systems; statistics; sunlight; supply and demand; anticipated variations; binary trees; descriptive statistics; electricity demand; generators output control; global solar radiation forecasting models; installed photovoltaic systems; meteorological data; one-day-ahead demand; power prediction; power systems demand and supply; supply operation; supply planning; three-hour-ahead demand; weather information; wide area forecasting; Clouds; Fitting; Forecasting; Binary Trees; Descriptive Statistics; Forecasting; Photovoltaic;
fLanguage :
English
Publisher :
ieee
Conference_Titel :
Power System Technology (POWERCON), 2012 IEEE International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Auckland
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4673-2868-5
Type :
conf
DOI :
10.1109/PowerCon.2012.6401336
Filename :
6401336
Link To Document :
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