Economical effects of the Weibull parameter estimation on wind energy projects

Author

Ramos-Robles, C.A. ; Irizarry-Rivera, A.A.

Author_Institution

Puerto Rico Univ., PR, USA

fYear

2005

fDate

23-25 Oct. 2005

Firstpage

597

Lastpage

602

Abstract

In this paper we analyze wind measurements using the Weibull probability density function (PDF). We estimate the shape factor (k) and the scale factor (c) of a Weibull PDF using maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) and the least squares estimation (LSE) method. We then compare the energy production results that would be obtained when using the parameters estimated with each method. An economical analysis is performed to show the effects of overestimating or underestimating energy production caused by an erroneous estimation of the Weibull PDF parameters. Finally a Monte Carlo simulation is performed to asses the economical risk that the shape and scale parameters represent to the outcome of the project.

Keywords

Monte Carlo methods; Weibull distribution; least squares approximations; maximum likelihood estimation; power generation economics; risk management; wind power plants; Monte Carlo simulation; Weibull parameter estimation; Weibull probability density function; economical analysis; economical risk assessment; energy production; least squares estimation methods; maximum likelihood estimators; scale factor; shape factor estimation; wind energy projects; Cause effect analysis; Density measurement; Least squares approximation; Maximum likelihood estimation; Parameter estimation; Power generation economics; Probability density function; Production; Shape; Wind energy;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Power Symposium, 2005. Proceedings of the 37th Annual North American

Print_ISBN

0-7803-9255-8

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/NAPS.2005.1560595

Filename

1560595