An Estimating Method for Airborne Avionics Lifespan and Its Reliability

Accurately estimating the airborne avionics lifespan is the key to determine the optimum maintenance time, access to cost-effective for civil aviation maintenance. Affected by various factors, there usually is large difference between avionics actual service lifespan and OEM designed lifespan. Based on these, this paper provides single factor fusion and integration of multi-factor to estimate avionics lifespan and to calculate reliability for some real service data of UNIT-IRU series avionics received from an airline. Both of the two methods are based on the D-S method. Taking sample scale into account, omitted nuances of calculation amount, the laster method reduced the uncertainty of basic probability distribution from about 20% to 5%. And it shows that the result of multi-factor D-S method has higher accurateness and reliability for estimating avionics lifespan, besides, the method has more practicality.