The use of judgemental modelling in a group negotiated strategic decision

This paper focuses on the role that judgmental modelling played in helping a large international manufacturer plan its future production environment. Two strategic decisions had to be made, relating to which production process to choose, and which projects to allocate to the process. Different members of the management team were responsible for different elements of the decision. There was extensive interchange and negotiation between these various parties throughout the decision process. In both cases the use of judgmental modelling had advantages in terms of structuring the decision process and in rank ordering the potential solutions. The paper compares the rank orders of the different potential outcomes before and after the use of the judgmental modelling, and comments on the differences between them. In addition, we introduce the use of psychological profiling as an approach to understanding how individuals interact and negotiate their way through a major strategic decision