DocumentCode :
2912826
Title :
Properties of weighted geometric means combination forecasting model based on degree of logarithm grey incidence
Author :
Huayou, Chen ; Kaimin, Ding ; Junting, Zhang
Author_Institution :
Anhui Univ., Hefei
fYear :
2007
fDate :
18-20 Nov. 2007
Firstpage :
673
Lastpage :
677
Abstract :
We build the weighted geometric means combination forecasting model based on degree of logarithm gray incidence. This is a new kind of nonlinear combination forecasting method. We calculate weighted coefficient vectors of combination forecasting methods by the optimal criteria of maximizing the logarithm the degree of gray incidence of combination forecasting model, which is different from ordinary criteria of minimizing absolute errors. We put forward some new concepts of this model, such as superior combination forecasting, redundant degree of combination forecasting etc. We exhibit the sufficient conditions of the existence of non-inferior and superior combination forecasting. We also prove that there exists redundant single forecasting method in the combination forecasting if the single forecasting method is strictly dominant over another. These results show that the combination forecasting model is effective theoretically.
Keywords :
forecasting theory; grey systems; error minimization; logarithm grey incidence; nonlinear combination forecasting method; weighted coefficient vector; weighted geometric mean; Arithmetic; Intelligent systems; Mathematics; Predictive models; Solid modeling; Sufficient conditions; Vectors;
fLanguage :
English
Publisher :
ieee
Conference_Titel :
Grey Systems and Intelligent Services, 2007. GSIS 2007. IEEE International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Nanjing
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-1294-5
Electronic_ISBN :
978-1-4244-1294-5
Type :
conf
DOI :
10.1109/GSIS.2007.4443359
Filename :
4443359
Link To Document :
بازگشت