Title :
Grey prediction with rolling mechanism for electricity demand forecasting of Shanghai
Author_Institution :
North China Electr. Power Univ., Baoding
Abstract :
The traditional Grey model has been widely used in various forecasting systems, including electricity demand forecasting. However, it is reported that the accuracy of the model is not satisfactory. In this paper, Grey prediction with rolling mechanism (GPRM) approach is proposed to predict the total and industrial electricity consumption of Shanghai. GPRM is used because of high prediction accuracy, applicability in the case of limited data situations and requirement for little computational effort. Results show that the forecasting precision of GPRM for total and industrial electricity demand is improved. And future projections have also been done for total and industrial sector, respectively.
Keywords :
grey systems; load forecasting; Shanghai; electricity demand forecasting; grey prediction; industrial electricity consumption; rolling mechanism; Accuracy; Agriculture; Demand forecasting; Economic forecasting; Energy consumption; Intelligent systems; Power industry; Predictive models; Training data; Weather forecasting;
Conference_Titel :
Grey Systems and Intelligent Services, 2007. GSIS 2007. IEEE International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Nanjing
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-1294-5
Electronic_ISBN :
978-1-4244-1294-5
DOI :
10.1109/GSIS.2007.4443362
