An Electricity Market Model Based on Extended Probabilistic Power System Production Simulation

The main obstacle, using the classic power system probabilistic production simulation to simulate electricity market operation, is its assumption that loading order is fixed according to units´ cost. In this paper, a power system probabilistic production simulation model in which units´ cost is described as a discrete stochastic variable is presented. In addition, to solve the model, an algorithm based on the cumulants method is given, wherein the generating units with discrete stochastic operating cost are replaced by a series of equivalent units with constant operating cost, so that the traditional calculation method of power system probabilistic production simulation can be used to obtain the results of the power system operation. A comparison of the presented method with the Monte Carlo method is investigated based on the IEEE-RTS data in this paper, and the results show that the presented method is better with respect of acceptable precision and calculation speed.