On the uncertainty of estimating global climate change and its potential impacts on vegetation

Author

Kainuma, M. ; Matsuoka, Y. ; Morita, T.

Author_Institution

Nat. Inst. for Environ. Studies, Tsukuba, Japan

Volume

1

fYear

1995

fDate

20-24 Mar 1995

Firstpage

171

Abstract

We have developed an Asian-Pacific integrated model (AIM) that is a large-scale model for scenario analyses of greenhouse gas emissions and the impacts of global warming in the Asian-Pacific region. The AIM comprises two main models - the AIM/emission model for predicting greenhouse gas emissions and the AIM/impact model for estimating the impacts of global warming. With this model, we have estimated CO₂ emissions based on future predictions of socioeconomic and natural factors taking into account various uncertainties. Next, assuming climate change scenarios deduced from AIM/emission and general circulation model (GCM) experiments, primacy impacts on natural vegetation have been assessed spatially

Keywords

air pollution; atmospheric temperature; climatology; natural resources; Asian-Pacific integrated model; CO₂ emissions; global climate change estimation uncertainty; global warming; greenhouse gas emissions; large-scale model; natural factors; scenario analyses; socioeconomic factors; vegetation; Clouds; Economic forecasting; Environmental economics; Global warming; Large scale integration; Power generation economics; Predictive models; Production; Uncertainty; Vegetation;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Fuzzy Systems, 1995. International Joint Conference of the Fourth IEEE International Conference on Fuzzy Systems and The Second International Fuzzy Engineering Symposium., Proceedings of 1995 IEEE Int

Conference_Location

Yokohama

Print_ISBN

0-7803-2461-7

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/FUZZY.1995.409677

Filename

409677