Research on Transmission Expansion Planning Based on Probabilistic Incremental Reliability Value

Traditional transmission planning often takes the minimum investment of network as objective function with power supply reliability as a constraint. However, this approach does not give consideration to both economy and reliability of the network. In this paper, the probabilistic method is performed to research on transmission expansion planning. Probabilistic Reliability Index (PRI) is modified, and a probabilistic index which can describe the overall reliability of the system can be weighted calculated. On this basis, a concept of Probabilistic Incremental Reliability Value (PIRV) is proposed, and applied to transmission planning. This method takes both the cost and the probabilistic reliability of the network into account, providing a new evaluation index to transmission planning. A numerical example is analyzed and indicates the effectiveness and practicality of this method.