Assessment Method of Power System Catastrophic Events Based on Electric Network Dissection and Uncertain Measure

For the difficulties of catastrophic events assessment caused by complex uncertainties of network topology and electrical running state as well as their combination, a new method based on the dissections of network topology and electrical parameters is proposed. These two dissections can easily describe the inherent properties and variation of electrical parameters in the occurrence process of catastrophic events respectively, and can also reveal the patterns of network structure and its running state. Some assessment measures including credibility measure and expected load loss index are introduced to represent the uncertainties of network structure and running state after the tripping of some components on the basis of the uncertainty theory. The simulation analysis have shown that the assessment results about the most and the least severe contingencies of the proposed method quite agree with that of traditional methods, and it is more accordant to actual power grid operation state according to the assessment of contingencies between the most severe and the least severe state.