Title :
Stochastic analysis on probability of fire scenarios in risk assessment to occupant evacuation
Author :
Chu, Guanquan ; Wang, Jinhui
Author_Institution :
Minist. of Transp., Waterborne Transp. Inst., Beijing, China
Abstract :
This study presents a framework of stochastic analysis on probability of fire scenarios in risk assessment to occupant evacuation. Probable fire scenarios were constructed by event tree with consideration of fire protection systems and manual intervention. Uncertainty of probability values of fire protection systems and manual intervention were analyzed by coupling fire dynamics model and Monte Carlo simulation based on stochastic input data, such as lognormal fire growth rate. Then, probability of fire scenarios was analyzed as variables with time.
Keywords :
Monte Carlo methods; emergency services; fires; risk management; stochastic processes; Monte Carlo simulation; event tree; fire dynamics model; fire protection systems; fire scenarios probability; lognormal fire growth rate; occupant evacuation; risk assessment; stochastic analysis; Buildings; Fires; Ignition; Protection; Risk analysis; Risk management; Safety; Stochastic processes; Stochastic systems; Uncertainty; Monte Carlo simulation; event tree; fire scenario; risk assessment;
Conference_Titel :
Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, 2009. IEEM 2009. IEEE International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Hong Kong
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-4869-2
Electronic_ISBN :
978-1-4244-4870-8
DOI :
10.1109/IEEM.2009.5372940
