Title :
Risk simulation for residential development: A case study for an uncertain market in South Africa
Author :
Pretorius, L. ; Li, C.
Author_Institution :
Grad. Sch. of Technol. Manage., Univ. of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa
Abstract :
Risk assessment (RA) can be considered to be a sub-system of risk management (RM). Some socioeconomic aspects of creating uncertainty in a residential development in a South African case study are discussed within a systems context. The cultural dimension creating uncertainty in the residential development undertaken by a Chinese company in South Africa is also explored. Conceptual risk simulation using the Monte Carlo method is presented to assess the effect of interest fluctuations on the development.
Keywords :
Monte Carlo methods; commerce; demography; risk management; socio-economic effects; uncertain systems; Monte Carlo method; conceptual risk simulation; cultural dimension; residential development; residential development uncertainty; risk assessment; risk management; socio-economic aspect; uncertain market; Africa; Construction industry; Cultural differences; Economic indicators; Environmental economics; Environmental management; Investments; Risk management; Technology management; Uncertainty; Risk Simulation; case study; cultural dimension; interest rate risk; parametric study; residential development;
Conference_Titel :
Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, 2009. IEEM 2009. IEEE International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Hong Kong
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-4869-2
Electronic_ISBN :
978-1-4244-4870-8
DOI :
10.1109/IEEM.2009.5373134
