Simulation Analysis of Bullwhip Effect in Logistics Service Supply Chain Based on Vensim

The bullwhip effect in logistics service supply chain (LSSC) is the phenomenon that logistics service capacity fluctuation amplifies upstream a supply chain. It may cause resource waste and risk increasing. But the related research is nearly a gap. This paper puts forward the indicator and possible factors of the bullwhip effect in LSSC, then constructs a four-stage LSSC using Vensim for analysis and optimization. The results confirm the occurrence of upstream amplification of service capacity fluctuation in LSSC and service capacity being a more appropriate measure for bullwhip effects in LSSC than inventory levels. This paper also shows that the safety service capacity and service delay time are in positive correlation with the effort of bullwhip effect, while the relationship between adjusting time of logistics service capacity and bullwhip effect is of a clear shape of "reversed smile".