On the predictability of phase noise modeled as flicker FM plus white FM

We investigate the predictability of RF oscillator phase noise (PHN) when a higher order model than the Wiener process is considered. The increment of the PHN process, i.e., the frequency fluctuation, is modeled as the superposition of a stationary 1/f^α process and white noise and predicted by a linear minimum-mean-squared error (LMMSE) predictor. This deviates from the classical Wiener model, which considers white noise increments only. The normalized mean-squared error (NMSE) in one-step-ahead (OSA) prediction of the PHN process is then evaluated from the results obtained and is compared for different signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) values and different PHN characteristics. In many situations the new PHN model shows a good prediction gain compared to the Wiener model, even for low order predictors.