Estimation of area of uncertainty for moving target tracking

On the assumption that measurement errors of range and bearing are zero-mean and Gaussian distributed, a method of estimating the moving target´s likely position or AOU(Area Of Uncertainty) is presented based on the estimation of motion parameters. It exploits least square method to estimate the error of initial location vector and displacement vector. Through vectors synthesis of two kind of location error, precise expressions of confidence ellipse have been derived with 2-dimentional joint probability density function. Quantitative description of confidence probability for AOU has been made. The simulation result reveals that AOU can be precisely represented by the confidence ellipses. Presented approach and obtained results may be useful in underwater target tracking and command decision-making application.