An improved historical simulation method to estimate the amount of refined oil retail value at risk VaR

Value at risk, an effective measurement of financial risk, can be used to forecast the risk associated with amount of refined oil. In this paper, an improved Historical Simulation Approach, HSGF is proposed, which is based on a former approach, HSAF. By comparing it with the HS,HSAF and HSGF approach, this paper give evidence to show that HSGF has a more effective forecasting power in the field of amount of refined oil risk management.