Modeling of Distribution Loads for Short and Medium-Term Load Forecasting

Utilities need to anticipate future load to properly plan system expansion and operation. This paper investigates methods to forecast future mid-term distribution system loads. In this horizon, the prevailing weather plays an important role. Other important considerations include the load composition, its residential and commercial mixture, lifestyle dependency, as well as secondary factors such as wind and solar radiation. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate how one can use a general load-modeling framework to systematically extract the essence of specific modeling problems and to obtain practical models. The key requirements for practical load modeling tools are to make maximum use of available load data while limiting the computational burden.