Study on transmission network expansion planning considering uncertainties

Transmission network expansion planning problem face many uncertainties in electricity market, in the paper, two uncertain factors of capacity of new-added generation company and load are considered, expected value objective and expected value constraints are adopted in the transmission planning model, a novel expected value bi-level programming model of transmission expansion planning is presented. The upper level objective is the minimization of transmission network investment cost and operation cost expected value, the upper level constraints are the number of new-added lines restraints. The lower level objective is electric power operation cost expected value, the lower level constraints include system normal operation restraints and N-1 operation restraints and system load shedding expected value restraints. Two uncertain factors are considered in the model, which satisfy different probability distribution function. Monte Carlo method is adopted to analyze the uncertain factors and expected value function. Hybrid algorithm integrated improved niche genetic algorithm with prime-dual interior point method is proposed to solve the proposed model. The results of 18-bus system were proved that the proposed model and algorithm were valid.