Characterising the reliability of production from future British offshore wind fleets

The extent to which large volumes of offshore wind can contribute to a secure and reliable electricity supply is a subject of much debate. Key to providing credible answers requires a detailed understanding of the wind resource and its variability in time and space. Here, a mesoscale atmospheric model was employed to create a ten year hindcast of British onshore and offshore wind speeds. This was used to simulate the output of a British offshore wind fleet and combined with demand data to assess reliability during periods of high demand. Further, capacity value calculations using Effective Load Carrying Capability for the combined onshore and offshore GB wind fleet provides an estimate of the long-term reliability of production.