Title :
Some patterns of technological change in high-performance computers
Author_Institution :
Worlton & Associates, Los Alamos, NM, USA
Abstract :
The author describes the patterns of the unusually rapid change that high-performance computer technology is undergoing. He identifies the stages in which technological changes occur and then defines `change´ as the first derivative of an information function that describes the state of a technology. He explores the driving forces that cause three generic patterns of technological change: incremental, exponential, and logistic. Some areas in high-performance computer technology that are following these patterns are identified, and a forecast is developed. Some limits of high-performance computing are discussed
Keywords :
DP industry; forecast; high-performance computers; technological change; Analytical models; Atmosphere; Bones; Economic forecasting; Lifting equipment; Logistics; Pattern recognition; Pollution; Taxonomy; Technology forecasting;
Conference_Titel :
Supercomputing '88. [Vol.1]., Proceedings.
Conference_Location :
Orlando, FL
Print_ISBN :
0-8186-0882-X
DOI :
10.1109/SUPERC.1988.44668