Climate Change Effects on Timber Yields and Soil Expectation Values in Northern Saskatchewan

We explore the effects of climate change on future timber yields and future forest fire activity using a forest ecosystem model (PnET) and projections of future area burned. We integrate these data to determine future forest land values (as measured by Soil Expectation Values or SEV) for several commercial forestry species (white spruce, aspen and jack pine) in central Saskatchewan. Different species responded differently to increases in temperature, soil moisture availability and atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. The results suggest that under most future scenarios, stand productivity increases, but decreases under extreme drought. However, projected increases in area burned offset these productivity increases. Under high levels of future area burned, SEV is lower than current values, resulting in a negative economic impact. We also find that the optimal economic rotation age under future climate is lower than that under present climatic conditions. We conclude by discussing the challenges that these future uncertainties pose for long-term forest management planning. We demonstrate two practical risk management techniques - Monte Carlo simulation and scenario planning - that can serve as tools for incorporating uncertainty analysis into decision making. Finally, we conclude with the basic principles necessary to improve the ability of forest managers to cope with and integrate uncertainty analysis into both the development and evaluation of forest-level adaptation strategies.